Global Markets Focus on US September CPI Data and Waller's IMF Speech Next Week

Next week, global markets will focus on the US September CPI data to assess whether the Federal Reserve will maintain its stance of "non-consecutive rate hikes." Most officials believe there may be one more rate hike this year, but recent statements indicate there is no urgency to act in consecutive meetings. The market pricing for a rate hike on October 28 has dropped to about 19%, while a rate hike in December is fully anticipated. The important events are scheduled as follows:

Tuesday: Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak; Fed Governor Waller will speak at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in India; US September NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, ADP employment numbers for the week ending September 26, and September existing home sales annualized; OPEC will release its monthly oil market report.

Wednesday: US September CPI and core CPI; the Fed will release its Beige Book on economic conditions after a series of speeches; Boston Fed President Collins and Fed Governor Bowman will speak; IEA will release its monthly oil market report.

Thursday: US API crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9; US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 10, September retail sales, September PPI and core PPI, and October manufacturing indices from the New York Fed and Philadelphia Fed; G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting.

Friday: Fed Chair Waller will attend the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and have a fireside chat with IMF President Georgieva; Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak again; US September import price index, industrial production; US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending October 9.

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