Global onshore oil inventories drop 113 million barrels, impacting Bitcoin inflation relief hopes

Global onshore oil inventories decreased by an estimated 113 million barrels in September, according to the International Energy Agency's report. However, an increase of 103 million barrels in oil on water resulted in a net decline of only 10 million barrels, obscuring the significant loss from onshore stocks. The IEA attributed the waterborne buildup to recovering Gulf exports, which reached 13.9 million barrels per day in September, over 75% of pre-war levels. Despite recovering exports potentially offering relief, the IEA noted that onshore stocks are at their lowest since at least 2016, and record tanker rates are raising crude delivery costs, impacting refinery margins in Europe and Asia. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlighted increased business costs due to elevated diesel prices and fuel surcharges. As of October 12, US on-highway diesel was priced at 6.179美元 per gallon, down 2 cents from October 5 but still 2.514美元 higher than a year ago. Persistent energy inflation may delay easier US financing for Bitcoin and limit investor appetite for riskier assets. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%–4% on September 16, which has historically affected crypto prices. The New York Fed's SOFR benchmark was 3.88% on October 14. The next challenge is whether recovering exports can rebuild land-based stocks and alleviate freight and fuel surcharges.

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